Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.370595 15.136195 18.217807 21.883663 26.102360 30.781823 36.340644
2025-12-21 7.867937 11.224455 15.401260 20.883257 27.784081 36.075671 46.674806
2025-12-28 5.950199 9.586036 14.510589 21.454939 30.761320 42.559021 58.373405
2026-01-04 4.602179 8.281216 13.652517 21.703757 33.063250 48.093224 68.999326
2026-01-11 3.686161 7.348413 13.070187 22.116146 35.448042 53.723472 79.918024
2026-01-18 3.046210 6.683031 12.727861 22.746200 38.077747 59.733355 91.557536
2026-01-25 2.368381 5.772917 11.820283 22.347554 39.086864 63.448516 100.139363
2026-02-01 1.941238 5.213942 11.384917 22.598489 41.022020 68.516374 110.776165
2026-02-08 1.515551 4.535454 10.611593 22.165148 41.800677 71.862239 119.022618
2026-02-15 1.157149 3.890171 9.775580 21.494426 42.092676 74.426776 126.165198
2026-02-22 0.988097 3.644254 9.673588 22.104646 44.507038 80.322328 138.457054
2026-03-01 0.775774 3.211470 9.105783 21.770721 45.267741 83.631408 146.925908
2026-03-08 0.626914 2.917545 8.821216 22.018414 47.181948 89.076950 159.241860
2026-03-15 0.439438 2.412050 7.950869 20.996485 46.766432 90.752395 165.825300
2026-03-22 0.363634 2.248288 7.865015 21.569449 49.282756 97.361915 180.431729
2026-03-29 0.289960 2.049571 7.644981 21.819226 51.193783 103.020214 193.696951
2026-04-05 0.235336 1.896019 7.510400 22.233321 53.431536 109.314410 208.190432
2026-04-12 0.195946 1.786980 7.476365 22.865975 56.124812 116.493137 224.352184
2026-04-19 0.142520 1.556842 7.027467 22.465685 56.723980 120.012576 234.556050
2026-04-26 0.112028 1.428667 6.860447 22.717656 58.646598 125.940075 248.952675
2026-05-03 0.079008 1.240115 6.441658 22.282526 59.104326 129.231550 258.976566
2026-05-10 0.052356 1.051541 5.959575 21.609019 58.992105 131.453380 267.215997
2026-05-17 0.042510 0.998516 5.962111 22.221773 61.681291 138.944423 284.747333